Dylan Collingbourne
16 Aug 2025
"Expected for a longer day on the water to get back to the race schedule. Bigger breeze from the E looking at clocking right through the afternoon when it is sunny and slightly warmer."
Key Weather Details
Wind:
Sat: 12/18 knots gusting 16/22 from E
Water State: Slow rolling swell from the channel as there is a long fetch from an easterly.
Tide Times: HW will be 12:07 with a height of 3.271m (less than yesterday). Therefore the tide will be going North for the first two races and then it will be going South for the rest of the day peaking in strength for the beginning of the first race going north and then peaking at 15:00 going south.
Sat: Highs of 21 degrees with sunny intervals in the morning and early hours of the afternoon and then sunshine in the late afternoon. Pollen in medium and UV is high.
Other Notes: With having only completed one race on Day 1 in tricky conditions, the start time has been pulled forward to maximise time on the water for the second day. It is likely that the race officer is looking at 5 races today and then 4 races on Day 3 to try and get back to the schedule.
For a detailed understanding of what each wind model means - have a look here. Arome is typically the most reliable.
Day Breakdown
Saturday:
Morning | Early afternoon | Late afternoon |
18 knots gusting 23 E (90 degrees) 18-19 degrees Choppy water building to breaking waves as we approach HW on the beach Sunny intervals | 15 knots gusting 20 E (90-110 degrees) 20 degrees Swell building around HW Sunny intervals | 12-13 knots gusting 16 SE (110-120 degrees) 21 degrees Swell still during racing times Sunny |
Tactical Considerations
Over the day it is expected for the wind conditions to drop off for both the wind average and the gusts so we have to make sure that we "pace" ourselves with our endurance. It is going to be a long day on the water so manage your focus and physical performance to be consistent throughout the day.
The forecast is showing a similar persistent shift clocking right through the day beginning at 90 degrees going around to 110 degrees so be ahead of it and possibly work your way to the correct side of the shift once it begins to develop. Breeze is up for Day 2 so as we are having our head out of the boats for tactical and strategic value, don't forget the basics with powerful boat handling and boat speed!
With a long day on the water and possible tidal flow changes in direction and speed, keep an eye on some of the racing marks and the committee boat for tidal influence across the race course.
Long day on the water for Day 2, some sailors may have already used their first discard so the only way from here is up! Good luck today!